Source: Environmental Meeting Almeriense
Monday, December 10, 2007
Ftse Market Capitalisation
AND WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING?
Source: Environmental Meeting Almeriense
FOSSIL FUELS AND CLIMATE CHANGE. REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS Source: Environmental Meeting Almeriense
José Luis García Ortega 
ABSTRACT This paper framework is structured around four sections. The first summarizes the consequences of climate change for the Mediterranean region, which fits the geography of Almeria. The second analyzes the "logic of carbon, according to which not to exceed ecological limits that the atmosphere can sustain without triggering dangerous climate change, we must limit the amount of fossil fuels that burn less than a quarter part of the current reserves. In the third section examines the most striking gas emissions on climate change triggers Almeria Carboneras power station, recently expanded. The last paragraph states Greenpeace's proposals for energy policy change that protects us from climate change.
1. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION
Climate change is the biggest environmental problem facing the planet. This has been confirmed world leaders at the recent Kyoto Summit. foreseeable consequences and impacts of climate change are serious enough to not stand by power, especially when its causes are well known: emissions of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities, especially the CO2 produced the burning of fossil fuels. Mediterranean Region and Almería in it, is one of the world's most vulnerable to the dangerous effects of climate change. The very survival of Almeria environment and economic activities taking place in our land, are threatened by climate change, and something that will condition seriously all the problems and solutions discussed in this meeting.
Greenpeace has recently published a study on the impact of climate change in the Mediterranean region, which are then synthetically its main conclusions: Effects projected climate change in the world and its implications for the Mediterranean Region and Almería.
Worldwide
Since 1860, global average temperature has risen between 0.3 º C and 0.6 º C. But since the mid-seventies, the warming has been particularly rapid since 1983, we attended the nine warmest years ever recorded. The maximum value of average temperature has been recorded in 1997.
According to the IPCC, if current trends in greenhouse gas emissions during the next century, this could lead to a speed of global warming "probably mayor que ninguna otra en los últimos 10.000 años". Concretamente, el actual ritmo de emisiones significa que: Las concentraciones de gases invernadero para el año 2030 equivaldrán al doble de los niveles preindustriales de CO2. Las temperaturas medias globales para el 2100 se incrementarán entre 1ºC y 3,5ºC, pudiendo llegar incluso a 4,5ºC, siendo el mejor valor estimado 2,5ºC.
El nivel del mar para el 2100 aumentará, como promedio, entre 26 y 86 cm., siendo el mejor valor estimado 55 cm.: un incremento entre 2 y 5 veces mayor que el experimentado en el último siglo.
La Región Mediterránea
Climate change will have profound implications and far-reaching for the 350 million people living in the Mediterranean region. The main consequences for the region of global climate change, to continue current trends in greenhouse gas emissions, are summarized in the following points.
The region's average temperature increased about 3.5 º C before the middle of this century, reaching 1.4 ° C and 2.6 º C for the second decade of the next century.
temperatures throughout the region could rise between 0.7 º C and 1.6 º C per degree rise in global average temperature.
Between now and 2100, temperatures may have risen to 2.5 to 3 º C in the Mediterranean Sea, 3.4 ° C in coastal areas, with increases of up to 5.5 º C over Morocco.
rainfall could be reduced by between 1.5% and 7.3%.
Expectations are for an increase of about 10% of winter precipitation (increased storm surges) and a decrease of between 5% -15% during the summer (increased drought) in 2100.
2100, rainfall would increase north of 40 º -45 º N and reduce below this parallel. This would mean a reduction of between 10% and 40% of rainfall in the southeast of Spain and much of Africa, and a decrease of 10% in central Spain, southern France, Greece and the Middle East.
Soil moisture could fall by around the Mediterranean between 15% and 25%.
The probability of dry spells in southern Europe could increase by a factor of 2 and 5 by doubling the CO2 concentration.
During the 1975-1994 period, the average rainfall was more than 17% lower than during the previous 20 years over much of northwestern Africa, Spain, Italy and Greece.
The beginning of the nineties was characterized extreme drought. In 1995 rainfall was 75% lower than the 1961-1990 average in much of the Western Mediterranean, being in Spain 50%. Between late September and early November 1993, rainfall in south-eastern France, western Spain, central Portugal, Corsica and northern Morocco were between 2 and 3 times greater than normal. During this period, Madrid had the highest rainfall recorded since 1854, the year he began measurements.
In 1995, it rained in some inland areas of Egypt for the first time in nearly half a century.
costs to combat desertification are estimated in a pta 2500-3000. per hectare of dry land and a 112,000 pta. per hectare of irrigated land.
2. THE END OF FOSSIL FUELS
PUT LIMITS TO CLIMATE CHANGE
action only governments can protect the global climate. However, what is being done? The Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations (the Climate Convention) was adopted in 1992.
The Convention aims to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. "
adds that:" Such a level should be achieved in a period of time sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable development economic development ".
Scientists Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG) working for the Programme United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), have put numbers to these levels.
UNEP Group found that: "Temperature increases of more than 1 º C could trigger rapid responses, unpredictable and likely to lead to large linear damage to ecosystems. "He also warned that the rate of increase should not exceed 0.1 ° C per decade.
damage depend partly on the extent of warming and partly on the speed at which this change occurs. Even stringent cuts in pollution, the initial rate of change planned for the next two decades is very high.
policy response
Scientists have calculated, as best they could, the level of greenhouse gases can tolerate the weather. But there are many governments have not even attempted to adapt their policies to these levels. The EU has established a goal of maintaining the maximum temperature increase to 2 º C above preindustrial levels. But this is twice the level considered harmful by the Group of UNEP. According to the same, 2 º C are: "An upper limit beyond which it expects a rapid increase in the risk of serious harm to ecosystems and nonlinear responses." The limit of 2 ° C should be considered as something to avoid with sufficient margin.
Greenpeace believes that CO2 levels must be stabilized at current levels or below them. A long-term increase in temperature of 1 º C above pre-industrial levels, with a rate of change of 0.1 º C per decade, is the absolute maximum that political leaders should accept. And what does this mean in terms of pollution?
limit the ecological damage
Greenpeace believes that political decisions should be determined by the following criteria:
Limiting long-term objective of increasing the temperature to less than 1 º C above pre-industrial levels .
Reduce the rate of increase in temperature to less than 0.1 º C per decade as quickly as possible, at most in the coming decades.
is expected that in the coming decades is the heating rate of 0.2-0.3 º C per decade.
limit the overall increase in sea level in the long term to less than 20 cm. A sea level rise of this scope still produce some damage but higher levels lead to a rapid increase in risk. UNEP's group found that limiting the increase in sea level at 50 cm could "prevent the complete destruction of island nations but still entail a great increase in economic and social damage caused by storms."
Limiting the rate of increase in sea level to a maximum of 20 mm per decade.
UNEP According to the group, this "would allow the most vulnerable ecosystems such as wetlands and coral reefs to adapt", but above this speed limit would lead to "a rapid increase in damage to ecosystems" .
SECURITY CLIMATE AND CARBON LOGIC
A "budget" for carbon
Predicting the amount of greenhouse gases that enter the atmosphere is possible to estimate the temperature change will occur. The most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, from burning fossil fuels. Thus, going backwards, we can estimate how much fossil fuel the world can use before exceeding the ecological limits determined by the group of UNEP. In other words, we can estimate a "budget" of fossil fuels. We could properly distribute the small amount of oil, gas and coal that we can still afford to burn.
The "summit" of the Climate Convention (Kyoto, December 1997) adopted a Protocol which requires developed countries to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2% for 2008-2012 compared to 1990 . However, it remains an open question that "budget" of fossil fuels and their distribution.
With relatively simple calculations can show that the global atmosphere can not support the use of only a small percentage of known fossil fuels.
How much carbon is left?
If you want to avoid major climate damage, you can only burn a fraction of the total amount of carbon in the reserves and world oil resources, coal and gas.
However, the fossil fuel industry and governments still plan to use so-called economically recoverable reserves. They contain 1,055 GtC distributed approximately as follows: GtC
petroleum gas 110 75 640 GtC GtC carbon
unconventional forms of oil and gas (shale and hydrates) represent the remaining total economic reserves.
The IPCC estimates that the "maximum potential resource base" for oil (both conventional and unconventional) is 452 GtC. This alone is enough to push the world beyond the threshold of dangerous climate change for ecosystems. Adding coal and gas the problem is even worse.
How much CO2 can be issued?
what extent should be limited fossil fuels and lower emissions depends partly on the "sensitivity" of the land to the increase of greenhouse gases. In other words, the ease of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to change the climate. We can make some estimates of how much carbon could be burned in the world while staying within certain temperature limits. These estimates do not imply that nature will be protected if we stick to these limits, it still could happen dangerous changes and surprises. However, they provide an orientation.
According to the IPCC, are likely increases in temperature between 1.5 and 4.5 º C if it doubles the amount of CO2 (or equivalent gases) into the atmosphere. If the earth's climate system is very sensitive we are in the lower range (1.5 º C) and if it is very sensitive in the upper range (4.5 º C).
The "best estimate" is currently used by governments is 2.5 º C. It is believed that this value is sufficient to cause serious damage to ecosystems. But as the IPCC has highlighted the current pattern of temperature change is best suited to an estimate of 3.5 º C.
It is therefore prudent to assume that the sensitive level is 3.5 º C. The analysis of carbon cycle models suggest that to avoid dangerous climate change Over the next hundred years, the total amount of carbon that can be emitted as CO2, is 225 GtC.
If we assume, optimistically, that there is no net contribution to the concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide from forest fires, then the "budget" of fossil fuels in the world is actually of 225 GtC.
Eliminate fossil fuels
With a maximum of 225 GtC, the current rate of use of fossil fuels, "carbon budget" will be exhausted in less than 40 years.
However, the primary energy demand is increasing worldwide at more than 2% annually. At this speed, the "budget" of fossil carbon will be exhausted within 30 years. Within elimination of fossil fuels, they must be adjusted according to their carbon content. Thus, while decreasing our total dependence on fossil fuels for a period, countries could switch to fuels with lower carbon content.
An essential step for the removal would stop exploring new areas for oil.
of 225 GtC budget is a fraction of the amount to be issued, according to assume economists generally in their forecasts of future consumption of energy, and is roughly half of all known oil reserves identified: 452 GtC.
The logic of this is that 75% of known reserves of fossil fuels (measured in carbon) can never be recovered economically used as fuel. In other words, should remain in the ground.
If this is considered in terms of real resources of coal, oil, gas and other fossil fuels (such as shale or methane hydrates), 95% should remain on the ground.
So, logic dictates to fuel fossils. Not "fail", we must leave them where they are. Given the size of the oil, coal and gas, it is clear that governments have never been faced before such a task and you are not being given the consideration it deserves. (...)
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